HYDRO-POWER SYSTEM SIMULATION TECHNIQUE1

ABSTRACT. The non-power requirements of a large hydro-power system of multiple-purpose projects often conflict with the best power peaking operation. In order to schedule an optimum multiple-purpose operation, advanced procedures that necessitate the use of computers are required. Special techniques are used in a computer program developed in the Reservoir Control Center, North Pacific Division of the Corps of Engineers that provide the ability to define operating constraints in order of priority. These techniques are easily adapted to practical reservoir regulation problems so that the program is useful in daily reservoir regulation scheduling.     

Effects of head restraint and seat redesign on neck injury risk in rear-end crashes

Automobile insurance claims were examined to determine the rates of neck injuries in rear-end crashes for vehicles with and without redesigned head restraints, redesigned seats, or both. Results indicate that the improved geometric fit of head restraints observed in many newer vehicle models are reducing the risk of whiplash injury substantially among female drivers (about 37% in the Ford Taurus and Mercury Sable), but have very little effect among male drivers. New seat designs, such as active head restraints that move upward and closer to drivers' heads during a rear impact, give added benefit, producing about a 43% reduction in whiplash injury claims (55% reduction among female drivers). Estimated effects of Volvo's Whiplash Injury Prevention System and Toyota's Whiplash Injury Lessening design were based on smaller samples and were not statistically significant.     

Reliability of police-reported information for determining crash and injury severity

Posted speed limit and police-reported injury codes are commonly used by researchers to approximate vehicle impact and occupant injury severity. In-depth crash investigations, however, produce more precise measures of crash and injury severity: change in velocity (delta-V) for crash severity and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scores for injury severity. A comparison of data from police crash reports with that gathered by National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) investigators highlighted the inadequacy of speed limit and police injury codes as proxies for delta-V and AIS injury severity. In general, delta-V increased with speed limit and higher values of AIS were associated with higher police-coded injury severity, but there were a number of anomalies. In particular, 49% of the drivers coded by police as having incapacitating injuries actually had sustained no more than minor injuries. This overstatement of injury severity was less frequent among male (44%) and elderly (37%) drivers than among female (53%) and nonelderly (50%) drivers. Also, 79% of the investigated vehicles that crashed on roads posted at 60 mph (96 km/h) or higher experienced a delta-V less than 25 mph (40 km/h). Safety studies depending on data from only police reports to establish injury or crash severity therefore could produce erroneous results.     

Differences between weekday and weekend air pollutant levels in southern California

Ambient air quality data were analyzed to empirically evaluate the effects of reductions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions on weekday and weekend levels of ozone (O3; 1991-1998) and particulate NO3- (1980-1999) in southern California. Despite significantly lower O3 precursor levels on weekends, 20 of 28 South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) sites (28 of all 78 southern California sites) showed statistically significant higher mean O3 levels on Sundays than on weekdays (p < 0.01); 49 of the remaining 50 sites showed no significant differences between mean weekday and Sunday peak O3 levels. We also observed no statistically significant differences between mean weekday and weekend concentrations of particulate NO3- or nitric acid (HNO3, the precursor of particulate NO3-). Averaged over sites, the mean Sunday NOx and nonmethane hydrocarbon concentrations were 25-41% and 16-30% lower, respectively, than on weekdays. Site-to-site differences between weekend and weekday mean peak hourly O3 levels were related to whether O3 formation was limited by the availability of NOx. A thermodynamic equilibrium model predicts that particulate NO3- levels would decrease in response to a reduction of HNO3, and that particulate ammonium NO3- formation was not limited by the availability of ammonia. The similarity of mean weekday and weekend levels of NO3- therefore did not result from limitations on the formation of particulate NO3- from its precursor, HNO3.     

Specific Conductance and pH as Indicators of Watershed Disturbance in Streams of the New Jersey Pinelands, USA

/ We used linear regression to independently and jointly relate specific conductance and pH measured at New Jersey Pinelands stream sites to the percentage of altered land in a watershed. Percentage altered land included developed and agricultural land uses and represented watershed disturbance for a given site. Median values calculated for a 2-year period (September 1992 through August 1994) characterized pH and specific conductance at the study sites. We found the relationships between the median values for both water-quality measures and percentage altered land for a site to be consistent across subregion and dominant altered-land use. Our results also demonstrated that the water-quality/altered-land relationships developed using median values were similar to relationships developed using data from any single-sample period within the entire study period. Individually, pH and specific conductance explained 48% and 56%, respectively, of the variability in watershed disturbance among study sites. The joint use of pH and specific conductance explained 79% of the watershed disturbance variability among sites. The joint use of these easily obtained water-quality measures can provide a quick assessment of instream water-quality impacts from upstream watershed disturbance at any Pinelands stream site. Additionally, a range in pH and specific conductance, and hence a range in ambient water quality, can be predicted for a given altered-land percentage or a change in existing altered-land conditions.     

LAND SUBSIDENCE: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT. Land subsidence due to groundwater overdraft has been assumed to be one of Arizona's major water related problems. This paper investigates the premise from an economic point of view and concludes that in the case of Arizona the physical fact of land subsidence has little or no economic significance.     

Efficiency of energy delivery systems: I. An economic and energy analysis

Energy-return-on-investment (ERI) analysis is a variation of more traditional cost-benefit analyses, a variation that is particularly important in times of diminishing fuel resources. We present a simple set of procedures for ERI analysis and apply those procedures to central New York State, where there is a proposal for a new 870 MW_e coal-fired generating station. We compared the energy and dollar costs of building that facility with the costs of an alternative comprehensive regional program of insulation. The analysis showed that regional insulation was more efficient in conserving energy than the plant was in providing it by at least a factor of 4 in economic terms and by a factor of more than 15 when viewed as energy returned on energy invested.     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.